MSTR could still outperform (mostly depending on the mNAV people jump in at).
Lots of speculation still exists on why the premium is even possible but VanEck had a good article in 2025 on why they think it happens.
I don’t think the average mNAV will stay as high as 2x or more going forward. My base case is that it settles above 1, somewhere in the 1.2 to 1.4 range. If that holds, a 10x move in BTC could translate into roughly a 12–15x move in $MSTR.
What’s most compelling here is the timeframe. This likely plays out within a decade, rather than over two or three decades, which is more typical for high-growth stocks.
Yea they are currently sitting at around 1.2. So 1.4 being at the high end seems logical.
I’m digging your math on the 12-15x vs Bitcoin 10x.
Next 5-10 years will be super interesting.
I wonder what their end game will be when things settle down? Bitcoin Bank? 🤔
Yes, kind of like a bank, but really a completely new model. People deposit fiat and receive $STRC (or a similar asset) in their account, designed to have low to near-zero volatility. At the same time, they earn a monthly dividend of around 8–12%. They can withdraw or sell anytime they need access to their money. The dividend essentially comes from monetizing Bitcoin’s volatility, as $MSTR uses incoming funds to accumulate BTC.