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RE: The Future Path of Gold / The Future Path of Bitcoin

in LeoFinance5 days ago (edited)

"...gold isn't a monetary metal. And bitcoin is the world reserve currency."

I hold the completely contradictory view. Gold has intrinsic value, like all commodities. Once we have access to the illimitable resources off Earth, the relative value of gold may decline, as unprecedented sources may become available, but even then it will have value as it's corrosion resistance, workability, and conductivity make it industrially useful. BTC, OTOH, is dependent on censorship resistant communications, which I expect to presently become unavailable. The global push to KYC access to OSes and apps will turn BTC into a CBDC, as the hoard of surveillance data that has been already collected on all of us will enable the owners of the network infrastructure we are dependent on for our communications to specifically allow or deny to each of us the power to communicate any particular data, whether dissent or BTC transactions, in an utterly granular and holistic way.

Absent communications hardware we ourselves own and secure from interference, what we know, what we say, and what we transact will be absolutely dependent on permission of the owners of the communications network hardware we depend on. AI also enables our comms to be spoofed, as we observe massive inundations of fake news regarding WWIII, and everything else we need to understand.

This creates a situation where Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan, can say BTC is valued at $10M, but if Sally can't send you a Satoshi for your firewood, her BTC has no value to you at all. What solution do you offer (and I mean an actual physical mechanism that is demonstrably of utility today, not something you wish or believe will happen someday) to the problem of secure communications? Packet radio like Meshcore does exist today, and is rapidly growing, but is far too limited in bandwidth to enable data xfers of consequence, such as torrenting apps and OSes. There are yet too few using Meshcore, Meshtastic, and Reticulum to communicate via packet radio over the LoRa spectrum than are necessary to create viable extended markets, which BTC must have to be valuable. Neither can the LoRa spectrum enable intercontinental commerce and communications. It is only regional, like Europe, the Eastern Seaboard, or the PNW, and these regions remain separate without independent backhaul infrastructure.

However, gold (and all commodities) has intrinsic value, and despite requiring physical transfer from one party to another in a transaction, cannot be censored or spoofed because we are not dependent on overlords for our face to face discussions, nor for our physical movements or possessions. Mark I feet and faces are all we need to transact with commodities, and if overlords can prevent us from walking and talking, we are already dead, so it doesn't matter if we can't trade using gold as a currency.

"...we learn how to vibrate gold out of pile of rocks."

As is your wont, you resort to fantasy in your considerations regarding future events. Additionally, you dismiss gold's utility and cultural significance without reason. Even if I could drink a beer and let my boombox mine an ounce of gold, that gold would still have value in manufacturing circuits, as jewelry, and as corrosion resistant coatings and enclosures. It's pretty because it doesn't corrode, unlike aluminum, steel, and wood. It's able to be manipulated industrially into practically any shape, such as gold leaf, wire, or bullets, with simple methods, and is extremely useful for electrical connections that most often fail because of corrosion, to which gold is practically immune. Furthermore, mankind has been transacting with gold since prehistoric times.

"...people can't get any silver or gold, but you can buy one satoshi."

As I have pointed out, the opposite is demonstrably the case. As long as I can walk and talk I can transact with PMs for my goods and services, while institutional controls are being implemented RN to prevent at will digital communications.

"Gold has gone WAY up in price"

This is false. The value of fiat has declined. Since ancient times an ounce of gold has been fair compensation for a tailored suit of clothing and a pair of good shoes. This is today the same rate of exchange as it has always been. Fiat is inflating, and both the fiat price of gold and of tailored clothing are changing accordingly. The value of gold remains steady measured against actual goods and services. It is the value of fiat that is rapidly declining relative to all goods and services, including gold.

"...as the banksters show their CBDC side, and start blocking people's access to their money, then those who got used to blockchains will get away from the centralized stuff."

BTC is utterly centralized, because it can only be communicated via communication network hardware that is completely owned by banksters. By selectively xmitting each byte of data, every feature of CBDC's can be imparted to cryptocurrencies, including XMR. Also, most people are not reasonable, and do not seek to secure their capital from overlords, which is why fiat retains any value at all today despite debanking, seizure of accounts, and all manner of shenanigans being practiced today by banksters and their pet politicians.

"Gold is not good, UNTIL!! the grocery store sets up an assayers table just inside the door, or someone in a van is trading grocery-script for gold in the parking lot. Until then, gold will be VERY inconvenient to transact in."

The expense of well crafting counterfeit PMs restricts such tricks to large transactions. For a meal copper, for a car or tool, silver, and for large transactions gold. You don't transact for a loaf of bread with gold coins. You buy the market with gold, and then an assayer is necessary, just as escrow is necessary with fiat transactions for real property. Even so I have transacted with gold coins without the need for an assayer.

You just ignore or distort these demonstrable facts.

Your claims are based on speculation without superable basis in demonstrable facts, and I strongly advise you to reconsider, or at least hedge, in recognition of the possibility your expectations for magical secure communications, power sources, and reasonable people taking reasonable actions (perhaps the most fantastic of all) failing to arise. This is the reason that investment in diverse vehicles is de rigeur historically. Whole markets, such as for stocks, bonds, or specific commodities, can collapse, eradicating any capital invested in those markets. Since the first rule of investing is to conserve your capital, never bet the farm on one specific market you can't eat if you can't sell it, such as cryptocurrency.

Thanks!